Chirag Paswan, the National President of Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), met Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Monday, July 17, 2023, a day before the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) meeting in New Delhi. The meeting is seen as a significant move ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, as Paswan is in talks with the BJP for finalizing his party’s share of seats in Bihar.
The LJP (Ram Vilas), led by late Dalit leader Ram Vilas Paswan, had contested six Lok Sabha seats in 2019 and also received a Rajya Sabha seat as part of its seat-sharing arrangement with the BJP. However, the party faced a split in June 2021, when five of its six MPs rebelled against Chirag Paswan and elected his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras as their leader. Paras later merged his faction with the JD(U), another ally of the NDA in Bihar.
Paswan has been trying to revive his party and maintain his ties with the BJP, despite being sidelined by the JD(U) and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. He has also been vocal in criticizing the state government’s handling of various issues, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, floods, unemployment, and law and order.
In this blog post, we will analyze the implications of Paswan’s meeting with Shah for Bihar politics and the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
Background
The LJP was founded by Ram Vilas Paswan in 2000 after he broke away from the Janata Dal. The party has a strong base among the Dalit voters, especially the Paswan community, which constitutes about 5% of Bihar’s population. The party has been a part of various coalitions at the Centre and the state, switching between the NDA and the UPA depending on the political situation.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the LJP (Ram Vilas) contested six seats in Bihar as part of the NDA and won all of them, with a vote share of 8%. The party also got a Rajya Sabha seat for Ram Vilas Paswan, who became a Union minister in the Modi government. However, in the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, Chirag Paswan decided to go solo and fielded candidates against the JD(U), while supporting the BJP. He claimed that he was following his father’s “Bihar first, Bihari first” vision and wanted to oust Nitish Kumar from power.
Paswan’s move was seen as a spoiler for the JD(U), which lost many seats to his candidates. The NDA managed to retain power in Bihar with a thin majority, but the JD(U) suffered a setback as its tally fell from 71 to 43 seats. The BJP emerged as the largest party in the alliance with 74 seats, followed by the RJD with 75 seats. The LJP (Ram Vilas) won only one seat but secured 5.7% of the votes.
However, Paswan’s gamble backfired as he faced a revolt from his own MPs, who accused him of weakening the NDA and harming his father’s legacy. In June 2021, five out of six LJP MPs met Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla and handed over a letter to him, stating that they have elected Pashupati Kumar Paras as their leader in place of Chirag Paswan. Paras is Ram Vilas Paswan’s younger brother and represents the Hajipur seat in Bihar.
Paras claimed that he had the support of 99% of the LJP workers and that he wanted to continue the alliance with the NDA. He also said that Chirag Paswan had deviated from his father’s principles and had become “autocratic” in running the party. He later merged his faction with the JD(U) and was inducted into the Union cabinet as a minister of food processing industries in July 2021.
Chirag Paswan challenged the Speaker’s decision to recognize Paras as the LJP leader and approached the Delhi High Court. He also expelled Paras and four other MPs from the party for anti-party activities. He claimed that he was still loyal to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and that he had not received any communication from the BJP regarding his status in the NDA. He also said that he would continue to fight for his father’s ideals and work for the welfare of Bihar.
Analysis
Paswan’s meeting with Shah is seen as an attempt to mend fences with the BJP and secure his party’s position in the NDA ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Paswan is likely to seek the same seat-sharing formula that was followed in 2019 when his party contested six seats and won all of them. He may also demand a Rajya Sabha seat for himself, as he is currently not a member of any House.
However, Paswan may face resistance from the JD(U), which considers him as a rival and a threat in Bihar. The JD(U) may not agree to give up any of its seats to accommodate the LJP (Ram Vilas), especially after Paras joined its ranks. The JD(U) may also argue that Paswan has lost his credibility and support base after the split in his party and his poor performance in the Assembly elections.
The BJP, on the other hand, may try to balance the interests of both the JD(U) and the LJP (Ram Vilas), as it needs the support of both parties to win Bihar. The BJP may also see Paswan as a potential ally in case of any future rift with Nitish Kumar, who has been known to switch sides in the past. The BJP may also want to keep Paswan in good humor, as he belongs to the Dalit community, which is a significant vote bank in Bihar and other states.
The meeting between Paswan and Shah may also have implications for the opposition parties in Bihar, especially the RJD, which is led by Tejashwi Yadav, the son of former chief minister Lalu Prasad Yadav. The RJD had emerged as the single largest party in the 2020 Assembly elections but fell short of forming the government. The RJD has been trying to woo Paswan and other smaller parties to join its fold and form a united front against the NDA in the next Lok Sabha elections.
However, Paswan’s meeting with Shah may indicate that he is not interested in joining hands with the RJD or any other opposition party. Paswan may also fear that aligning with the RJD may alienate his core voters, who are mostly anti-Lalu. Paswan may also hope that staying with the NDA may help him regain his lost ground and revive his party’s fortunes.
